Group 4: Economic Scenario and Policy Recommendation meets and exchanges ideas with new Japan members
April 27, 2022
The members of Group 4: Economic Scenario and Policy Recommendation held a meeting more specifically to introduce its 2 new members Dr. Akiyuki Kawasaki (University of Tokyo) and Dr. Tomohiro Tanaka (Kyoto University). Dr. Tanaka took over from former Study Leader Dr. Yokomatsu Muneta who came from the same university but already retired. Nevertheless, ICHARM hopes to still have Dr. Yokomatsu in some of the meetings of HyDEPP SATREPS.
The meeting was mainly hosted by Dr. Miho Ohara (Project Leader for Japan side) and attended by Dr. Nakamura Shinichiro who is also a member of Group 4, Japan side. Philippine side, on the other hand, was represented by Dr. Patricia Sanchez (Project Manager), Dr. Maria Angeles Catelo and Dr. Agnes Rola (Study Leaders), Ms. Catherine Gigantone (UPLB IdSC Water) and Mr. Julius Galang (JICA Project Assistant). Ms. Makiko Ohashi of JICA was also present at the meeting.
The meeting focused mainly on Dr. Tanaka's discussion on his new agent-based model to be used by Group 4 replacing the former model presented by Dr. Yokomatsu. Dr. Tanaka also emphasized his different professional background which is not in the field of economics but instead in hydrology and hydraulic engineering. The Agent-Based Model (ABM) considers the affected residents (i.e. surrounding the target river basins) as the agents who formulates decisions in house location and/or migration based on several affecting factors such as house prices, location, suitability for farming, risk of floods and drought, etc. Unfamiliar with this new framework, Dr. Sanchez, Dr. Catelo and Dr. Rola raised a few questions and concerns.
Since it is generally a mathematical model, Dr. Sanchez asked if there was a need to study a specific programming software for the model. Dr. Tanaka responded that he mainly uses C++, which opens up a new area for learning for SATREPS Group 4. Particularly in the target areas, there is still a need to determine which parameters to include in the model. Dr. Catelo, as Leader of the locally-funded DOST project counterpart for Group 4 mentioned that they can integrate this into the survey they are planning to conduct some time in June this year. However, Dr. Rola asked to consider if household data is really needed given the framework by Dr. Tanaka or if 2nd hand data (e.g. migration patterns) will be sufficient. This is still open to further discussion and evaluation.
Other concerns to consider in using this new model was also discussed. First, it was important to note the agents' willingness to migrate and what factors can further incentivize them to do so (e.g. insurance, compensation, etc). Government adaptive measures (e.g. structural or non-structural) in flood risk management must likewise be included. Also, it is currently observed that some family of farmers no longer continue the practice due to younger generations finding other opportunities. Given all these, both survey data and 2nd hand data might be considered in complement with each other in completing the model.